US Dollar Index Weakened, Copper Prices Edged Up Overnight [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM February 14 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,457/mt, initially edged upward before fluctuating downward, hitting an intraday low of $9,415/mt. It then fluctuated upward, reaching an intraday high of $9,510/mt near the close, before pulling back slightly to settle at $9,476/mt, up 0.07%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 291,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2503 contract opened at 77,500 yuan/mt, initially hitting a high of 77,590 yuan/mt before fluctuating rangebound downward, reaching an intraday low of 77,130 yuan/mt. It then rebounded, forming a "V-shape," and pulled back slightly near the close to settle at 77,450 yuan/mt, up 0.06%. Trading volume reached 24,000 lots, and open interest stood at 180,000 lots. Macro side, US PPI data far exceeded expectations, but sub-indices suggested that the PCE data to be released later this month might fall short of expectations, leading to a decline in the US dollar. Subsequently, Trump announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries exporting goods to the US, with tariffs potentially starting within weeks. This caused the US dollar to briefly narrow its losses against the yen before falling to lower levels, providing support for copper prices. Fundamentally, copper prices hovered at highs, with downstream buyers primarily purchasing on-demand, and overall consumption remained stable. According to SMM, inventory buildup continued in major domestic regions this week, but the pace of buildup has significantly slowed compared to last week. As of Thursday, February 13, SMM data showed that copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased by 21,400 mt from Monday to 326,200 mt, up by 53,100 mt from last Thursday and by 160,400 mt from pre-Chinese New Year levels. The post-holiday first-week inventory buildup exceeded the same period last year by 42,300 mt. Price-wise, macro factors are supportive, but fundamental support is relatively limited. Copper prices are expected to see relatively small gains today.